低生育社会的来临👩‍💻：中国生育革命与政策抉择(“十二五”上海重点图书；城镇化与社会管理丛书；上海市文化发展基金会图书出版专项基金资助出版) 

作者：杨发祥

出版社🆖☢️：华东理工大学出版社

出版时间：2011年3月 

页数👨‍🦳：209

字数：27万

内容提要

作为中国人口发展的重大变局，中国“低生育社会”的来临是与20世纪90年代初生育革命的初步完成同步实现的🦹🏿。中国生育革命的进程经历了酝酿、发生和完成等三个发展阶段。生育革命的动力，最初来自作为基本国策的计划生育政策，更有赖于改革开放以来中国经济社会的飞速发展。生育革命与生育政策的抉择持续互动。生育政策的差异化选择，是生育革命协同的策略。生育革命带来了巨大的社会效应，使新生育制度的建构成为一种可能。

作者简介

杨发祥，男🧖🏿‍♀️，汉族，安徽宿松人🤣，1972年生🦀。华东理工大学应用尊龙凯时AG研究所副所长，社会与公共管理学院尊龙凯时AG系副教授🩵，尊龙凯时AG、人口学、社会保障专业硕士生导师，兼任上海市尊龙凯时AG会副秘书长。

主持完成中国博士后科学基金项目1项，参与完成教育部重大课题1项🌚。现主持国家社会科学基金项目1项，教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目1项，上海市教委科研创新重点项目1项，中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目1项👨🏻‍⚕️，横向课题多项🧑‍🎓。主要从事农村尊龙凯时AG😌、人口尊龙凯时AG、社区研究等，近年来在《学术界》、《社会科学》、《社会》💑、《社会主义研究》🏄🏿‍♀️、《河北学刊》、《中州学刊》🔨、《福建论坛》、《甘肃社会科学》等全国中文核心期刊发表专业学术论文20余篇🙎‍♀️🧑🏼‍🤝‍🧑🏼，被《新华文摘》、《中国社会科学文摘》、人大复印报刊资料全文转载多篇，编著教材多部。

目  录

第1章 导论·····················································································1

1.1 选题缘起与研究意义·································································1

1.2 文献综述···············································································4

1.3概念界定与研究思路··································································15

1.4理论视角与研究方法·································································21

1.5创新之处及若干限制·······························································24

第2章  生育革命的思想渊源····························································27

2.1  中国古代生育思想·································································27

2.1.1控制人口增长的主张·························································28

2.1.2提高人口质量的理念························································30

2.1.3重视人口统计的意识·························································31

2.2  晚清至五四的生育思想······························································33

2.2.1人口数量观······································································33

2.2.2人口质量观···································································34

2.2.3马尔萨斯人口论辨析·····················································35

2.3  民国时期的生育思想·································································36

2.3.1桑格夫人来华与节育西风东渐············································36

2.3.2民国时期的节育论争与试水················································39

第3章  生育革命的酝酿：早期节育政策与实践（1949-1970）··················47

3.1 节制生育的早期制度安排·················································44

3.1.1节育政策缺失的原因·························································47

3.1.2节育政策出笼的基础·························································49

3.1.3节制生育政策的出笼·························································54

3.1.4节育政策的两次流产·······················································57

3.2 早期节育实践的两度起落·······················································59

3.2.1节育的自发性实践···························································59

3.2.2节育实践艰难行进····························································61

3.2.3节育试点逐步展开····························································64

3.2.4节育实践陷于停顿····························································69

第4章  生育革命的发生🧑🏼‍🏫：生育政策的调适与博弈（1971-1991）··················71

4.1生育政策的阶段性流变···························································71

4.1.1“晚🤛🏿、稀🧑‍🚒🚣🏽‍♀️、少”生育政策··················································71

4.1.2“晚婚、晚育、少生💾、优生”·················································74

4.1.3计划生育国策地位的确立················································79

4.2生育体制建设与秩序重建····················································81

4.2.1组织机构···································································81

4.2.2药具管理···································································85

4.2.3科学研究···································································86

4.2.4干部培训···································································88

4.2.5内部管理···································································90

4.3生育实践的结构性变迁·····················································92

4.3.1计划生育实质性起步·················································92

4.3.2计划生育突破性进展···················································95

4.3.3计划生育的分类指导·················································97

第5章  生育革命的完成：低生育社会的来临（1992年至今）···················99

5.1市场经济条件下的生育制度·············································99

5.1.1生育政策的稳定与完善·················································99

5.1.2工作新机制：利益导向··················································102

5.1.3工作新内容：优质服务··················································104

5.1.4计划生育村级自治················································106

5.1.5城市社区计划生育····················································109

5.1.6人口问题综合治理·················································111

5.2计划生育的依法行政··················································113

5.2.1计划生育的法制化滥觞·····································114

5.2.2计划生育地方立法实践····································115

5.2.3计划生育的全面法制化·······································119

第6章  生育革命的协同：生育政策的差异化选择·································122

6.1农村生育政策的流变·······················································122

6.1.1生育制度变革与政策初现（1949-1970）·················122

6.1.2生育政策调适与实践摸索（1971-1991）··················124

6.1.3计生村级自治与依法行政（1992年至今）················128

6.2少数民族生育政策的嬗变·······················································130

6.2.1鼓励人口增长阶段（1949-1970）·····························131

6.2.2节育政策酝酿阶段（1971-1981）····························132

6.2.3计划生育正式开展（1981-1992）·····························134

6.2.4计划生育良性发展（1993年至今）····························137

6.3生育政策的其他差别化规定··············································138

6.3.1流动人口的生育制度安排·······································138

6.3.2涉军婚姻的生育规定···········································141

6.3.3涉外人员的生育政策···········································143

第7章  大国转身：生育革命的社会效应·············································146

7.1生育革命与妇女···························································146

7.1.1妇女地位·····························································146

7.1.2生殖健康····························································148

7.1.3生育权······························································151

7.2生育革命与儿童···························································153

7.2.1出生性别选择·····························································153

7.2.2独生子女成长····························································156

7.3生育革命与老人···························································158

7.3.1老龄社会来临·····························································158

7.3.2养老模式转型····························································159

7.4生育革命与家庭···························································160

7.4.1家庭规模与功能·····························································160

7.4.2丁克家庭的凸显····························································162

7.5生育革命与文化······························································163

7.5.1城镇新型生育文化的初成········································164

7.5.2农村新旧生育观念的代谢··········································166

7.6生育革命与可持续发展···························································168

7.6.1生育革命与经济发展·····················································168

7.6.2生育革命与生态环境······················································170

7.6.3生育革命与人口发展······················································173

第8章 结语：新生育制度的可能··························································176

8.1生育政策的历史流变····················································176

8.2生育革命的实践反思·····················································183

8.3生育制度的未来展望····················································186

参考文献·························································································190

附录1：全国主要人口指标一览表（1949-2009）········································196

附录2🤸‍♀️：《中华人民共和国人口与计划生育法》··········································198

后记··································································································202

序

当今世界，各国人口规模、人口增长速度和生育文化不一🍋‍🟩，国情的多元导致各国生育政策呈现出不同的特质。大体说来，生育政策可分为鼓励性生育政策和限制性生育政策🐲𓀓。工业革命以来☹️，随着世界人口的持续激增和“人口爆炸”时代的来临，人口压力日益成为一个不争的事实🍞，许多国家开始在生育政策方面改弦更张🏒。从20世纪70年代起🍽，许多深受人口持续高增长之苦的第三世界国家🤽🏼，在经过一段酝酿、讨论和准备之后🔅，毅然放弃鼓励人口增殖的传统政策，转而采取节制生育♘、控制人口增长的新政策。70年代初期🧢，中国还属于高生育率国家行列，也正是从那时开始，中国经历了一场暴风骤雨式的生育革命🥠。据联合国不完全统计，70年代的158个国家或地区中🤤，有65个国家或地区执行节制生育政策。到80年代末期💆🏿，在178个国家或地区中，有近100个国家或地区执行节制生育政策，世界人口激增的脚步因而有所放慢😁。而到90年代初🫚，在151个发展中国家中🙆，有128个国家直接支持以节育为主的人口措施，17个国家间接支持节育。几乎所有发达国家都在不同程度上支持或允许节育🔅，并实施严格控制来自发展中国家移民的政策。这些限制人口增长的政策，大多出于现实的人口压力，以缓解人口与资源、环境之间的矛盾。正如美国学者加勒特·哈丁（Garrett Hardin）所指出：“人口控制的真正要点——批评者时常忽略的要点——不是减少人口本身，而是减少生者的不幸。”

然而，20世纪80年代起🎅🏿，一些发达国家的总和生育率降到更替水平以下💕🤠，并开始出现人口衰退现象。这种状况不断蔓延，引发了人们对“低生育率危机”或“低生育率陷阱”的普遍关注和热烈讨论。1997年全球已有51个国家和地区🧜🏽‍♀️、44%的人口处于低生育水平。目前世界人口的一半以上生活在生育率低于更替水平的社会中🎍。因人口锐减，俄罗斯拟征“无子女税”。1992年是中国人口转变进程中一个历史性转折点，当年全国总和生育率首次显著低于更替水平，之后近20年来，几乎所有全国性人口调查统计均反映生育率处于1.5以下🏊🏽‍♂️，城镇生育率甚至显著低于1.0。中国由此进入了一个“很低生育率”的新时代，正如本书所称的“低生育社会的来临”🧑🏽‍🎨。可以预见→，按照目前的总和生育率水平🔵，在并不太遥远的未来，中国人口将会出现短期难以扭转的负增长局面，即以平均每30年减少四分之一的速度下降，相伴而生的是人口年龄结构快速老化等一系列社会问题🎹。作为世界上第一人口大国，我国这种快速到来的人口变局📸，将会对劳动力、生产、消费、社会保障等方方面面造成重大影响，对未来的经济社会构成诸多挑战，甚至关系到民族的繁衍与发展🧑🏻‍🦲🧔🏿‍♀️。

中国生育革命的动力，最初来自作为基本国策的计划生育政策。30多年来😮，我国实现了发达国家一两百年才完成的人口再生产类型转变，为世界少生3 亿人，人口过快增长的势头得到有效遏制👰🏿‍♀️🍕，初步实现了由贫困到总体小康的历史性跨越。尽管这种以强硬控制手段为主的计划生育政策本身并未获得国内外的一致认同，甚至批评多于褒扬🧘🏽‍♂️，但它为全球人口与发展作出了不可磨灭的贡献💾，堪称世界人口发展史上的一大奇迹。日本人口学家若林敬子曾指出🕎：“中国的人口政策是史无前例的，也是人类历史上的宏伟实验。如果这种尝试取得持续的效果，世界人口状况将会改变🕺🏽。”当然🙎🏿‍♀️，中国生育革命的完成，有赖于改革开放以来中国经济社会的飞速发展🗑。市场经济释放出来的新的社会经济力量促进了生育率的下降，潜移默化地改变着中国民众的生育观念。制度与成本约束、推迟生育、不孕及竞争效应，都对中国生育革命的完成起着推波助澜的作用。

生育革命的完成👩🏿‍🔬，同中国进入“低生育社会”是同步的。在中国人口发展已进入低生育率时代的关键时刻🧕🏽，未雨绸缪，总结生育政策的历史流变与发展趋势👷🏻，反思生育革命的实践历程与影响因素♊️，研究低生育社会所带来的社会后果🤸🏼‍♀️，对于科学预测人口发展趋势，保障中国人口安全，实现人口与经济✬、社会协调发展👊🏽，具有重大的理论与现实意义♉️。从目前的研究来看，聚焦生育率水平的研究较多👨🏽‍🍳，从尊龙凯时AG视角出发对生育革命开展的跨学科研究成果尚不多💃🏿。而中国低生育率社会的来临，为在理论和实践上回应我国当前的生育政策与实践😮，论证和检验人口红利逐渐消失和刘易斯拐点到来的判断找到了新的契合点🧍🏻‍♂️，留下了大量可供探索的空间和可行的研究路径。杨发祥博士的专著《低生育社会的来临⛹🏻‍♂️：中国生育革命与政策选择》正是该领域的一部新作。总体看来，本书主要有以下几个特点𓀛：

第一，从人口转变理论出发👩‍🔧，以跨学科理论视角，综合运用多学科研究方法，将生育革命放置到整个社会制度体系中展开研究。在梳理生育革命思想渊源的基础上🛒🤾🏽‍♂️，从全球化、工业化🙅🏽👨‍🦯‍➡️、市场化和城市化以及城乡社会快速转型的背景出发🧑🏻‍🍳，从理论争鸣：节育政策出笼与早期节育实践（1949-1970）、政策调适🆒：生育实践的秩序重建与结构性变迁（1971-1991）和法制建构🈲：计划生育的常态化与制度化（1992年至今）等三个维度🕊，长时段立体呈现生育革命的现实进程及生育政策的时代抉择，探析了生育革命的发生机制。作者认为，生育革命的完成🧑🏻‍🔬，使我国生育制度走过了从理论争鸣、政策调适到法制建构的发展历程🚯，逐步完成了从节制生育向计划生育的话语转换，实现了从行政干预到政策牵引的方法蜕变👨‍👩‍👦，也初步实现了从强制性变迁向诱致性变迁的体制转型。

第二，考量我国人口发展的不平衡和生育政策的差异化选择🤌🏽，在对生育革命历时性研究的基础上，从共时性角度探索生育革命的协同机制🆘。作者认为🎾，农村和少数民族生育政策的流变、流动人口的生育制度安排🤸‍♀️🟰，以及涉军☸️、涉外人员的生育规定，体现了我国生育政策注重差异的灵活性实践策略，展现了中国生育革命的多维形态💡🧑🏽‍🦲。中国生育革命的这种协同机制🎵🛻，使生育政策的选择与实施呈现出不同的张力👩🏻‍🦯，也为未来新生育制度的建构培育了竞合的土壤🫶🏼𓀁。

第三，作为世界上第一人口大国，中国的生育革命具有重大的社会经济后果🎬。本书以大国转型为视点🙋🏿‍♂️，从社会关系与文化认知两大层面👊，探讨生育革命与社会结构之间的互动𓀆，将生育革命放置到社会转型中展开研究，宏观分析与微观分析并重，探讨了生育革命的作用、地位与角色，探索生育革命与妇女、儿童、老人、家庭、文化及可持续发展之间的关系。中国生育革命是通过“急煞车”式的人口转变完成的。当生育率降到更替水平以下时🤽🏽，人口年龄结构相对而言还比较年轻🧑‍🤝‍🧑。中国生育革命的特殊性👡，要求尊龙凯时娱乐在审视中国“低生育社会”的挑战时，充分考量本土的经验与潜在的变量，检视生育政策的得失利弊与未来走向6️⃣，开展战略性预测与前瞻，探寻建构新生育制度的可能，为可持续发展创造良好的人口环境👳🏿‍♂️。

毋庸置疑，由于我国人口基数大💃，在21世纪前期，我国还面临巨大的人口惯性增长，预计平均每年净增人口1000万左右，给经济🚨、社会👨🏼‍🌾、资源、环境和可持续发展带来巨大压力。受20世纪90年代初以来总和生育率存在的争议，以及第六次全国人口普查等最新统计数据的尚未面世，本书的部分结论有待进一步展开。低生育社会的社会经济后果还有一些未充分凸显，或者尚初露端倪，有待今后作更深入的研究。总之，理解和正视中国已进入低生育率时代这一事实🕵️‍♀️，是尊龙凯时娱乐开展相关学术研究与科学决策的一个基本前提。

杨发祥博士近年来在尊龙凯时AG与人口学研究领域取得了许多喜人的成绩，作为他的博士后导师，我感到由衷的高兴。我相信，他的学术道路一定会越走越宽广。

于尊龙凯时娱乐

                            2011年2月18日